8th Ed. daemons of chaos

Don't you remove losses on BL after each sally shot ? making the 20 hits becoming less after first shot ?

 

In the example over the page, the BL charged the skrox, so I would say you didnt enter combat with the daemons, the daemons entered combat with you!

I personally think the numbers are flawed as I feel Stonecutter was over generous and erroneous with the number of casualties the sallies would inflict, therefore impacting the maths at every other step


HOWEVER, I do agree that skrox are a good unit to put against a bloodletter horder, so in essence I'm not arguing against stonecutters conclusion, I just reckon they got there incorrectly.
I agree that, given a BL will cut down a saurus with relative ease. it is better to lose a cheaper skink than a saurus. Also, yes a 36+ unit of skrox would be a great choice for this battle, it is just that wasnt the unit chosen in the example.
And slann buffing is highly desirable, (Although light will likely be "sundered" out) but you also have to consider the other players magical abilities and spells.
Hence why I dont believe mathammer can ever justify/explain who would win a fight because warhammer isnt a unit of skrox against a unit of bloodletters, it is xxxx points of units against xxxx points of units each that interact with each other.

 

I did not do the mathhammer and dont play with Skrox but agreed that warhammer isnt a fight between 2 units, but bloodletters are really the only thing I am scared of when facing my daemon opponents (well also greater daemons but they usually dont field those) so I expend more on killing them since I know I can handle the rest as long as the bloodletters dont interfere

 

My earlier post with the mathhammer was intended to serve two primary purposes in responding to tactical questions in this thread to illustrate the following within the context of likely units to be present in a 2000 point army - the level at which the battle is being fought:

1) that sallies are effective vs daemons (ranked units in particular, no so much other troops)
2) that skrox are a good unit to take on a block of bloodletters.

While I would agree that the mathhammer is less than perfect it is close enough IMHO to support both the utility of sallies and skrox when going against daemons. If the sallies are placed 7" from the flank of a horde of 25mm models (i.e. bloodletters) and the flame template is fired along the line between two ranks, the results are 2=14 hits, 4=18hits, 6 = 22 hits, 8=26 hits & 10= 20 hits. This totals the average of 20 hits per shot I used but as Rhodium pointed out, misfires occur. Factoring in misfires, the average number of hits drops to 16.7 (100 hits /6) with the end result that 17 vice 20 BL die from the sallies - not really a massive swing in combat power for the BL since the skrox will still remain steadfast. Even without the slaan, the chance of skrox passing the breaktest on their own will be just over 80% (174 out of 216).

Now, if the skrox hold, what happens if the sallies counter charge the flanks? This will add in an extra 9 x s3 & 6 x S5 attacks for round 3 === 9 x s3 x 1/3 hit x 1/2 wound x 2/3 failed ward + 6 x s5 x 1/2 hit x 5/6 wound x 2/3 failed ward = 1 + 1.66 = 2.66 more wounds + charging + flank. The BL now lose by 5 or 6 and will take additional CR wounds on their breaktest.

Daemons are an elite army and definitely an extremely strong one. Like all elite armies however, they cannot field a large number of units since each model is so expensive - this is an even bigger consideration at the 2000 point level. This gives lizardmen an advantage in such a battle since lizzies have the ability to field multiple chaff units (i.e. skinks) that aid in deployment, harassment, attrition and, most importantly, "taking one for the team" to redirect a charge This sacrifice creates more time to set up favourable conditions for combat or further attrition by skinks/sallies. Tactics and luck will definitely affect the battle but nothing will stand in the way of implementing the plan of the old ones!!!

 

I feel I may have been a bit harsh with my dismissive response to your maths, but you have gone back and addressed the misfire and fixed the variable distance and in this case it doesn't actually change too much of the overall results.

However, as I stated previously, I always agreed with the conclusion, a skrox-sallie combo is very good at countering daemons and giving the new WD supplement, daemons have even worse shooting, you have a good chance of getting sallies into good positions

 

Id like to make a bit of a philosophical addition to the discussion.


The worlds best poker player will not beat you in every single hand. However, with the help of math, he can quickly estimate the probabilities involved in the betting, and thus make good bets. If he sees that he has a 30% chance of winning, but he will only have to bet 100 chips to win 1000 he will call you. you will win 70% of the time, but if you play MANY hands, his sound statistical reasoning will allow him to pull ahead. The probabilities will however not help him to "read" you. that is the part that is called "playing the player" and it works much more like intuition and psychology, and a player that is good at these things can have an advantage especially in the short run if he can guess when you are bluffing.


Mathhammer works in the same ways. with a good grasp of mathhammer in the form of "what unit is likely to win if these two units fight" will help you to make good tactical decisions. If you know that a horde of bloodletters will likely chop your sauruses to ribbons, you will not charge in to that combat UNLESS their sacrifice will grant you another tactical benefit. Tactics/strategy on the other hand is more like "playing the player" in this analogy. If you know something of how your opponent thinks you can anticipate him and counter his actions. a brilliant tactical maneuver Will be much like making a call when you “know” your opponent is bluffing. Even if the probability for a certain fight going a certain way remains the same, you can engage in a hopeless combat if you know that you by doing this can ensure a big victory elsewhere.


I hear over and over ppl sayig "mathhammer can not be trusted" and that is wrong. Mathhammer will always correctly calculate the average result of any given situation. Obviously we can not predict the future exactly, only calculate the probability for a certain event to happen, but this will help us make good bets. Tactics/strategy or whatever you wish to call it is the yin to the yang of mathhammer. the maths will allow you to predict the outcome of a certain situation. Tactics will allow you to produce favorable situations.


Every warhammer player uses mathhammer to some extent. We all know that a unit of 5 goblins that is charged by a hydra should lose even if their 5 attacks could theoretically kill the hydra, and the hydra could theoretically miss all its attacks (i calculated this once and i think it was roughly 1 *10^-20% chance for this to happen). Some use it more than others but all wan benefit from knowing how a situation is likely to end.


The same way, every warhammer player uses Tactics to try and and produce favorable situations. no one will reform his saurused to show its rear to the enemy at the crucial moment (unless ofc, you have a truly sneaky plan prepared ) and we can all benefit from trying harder to produce a favourable situation.


In conclusion, Warhammer is not like chess; a game of pure tactics/strategy. in chess, a peasant will knock down a queen if it "attacks". The game only considers who is the attacker and declares him the winner. Neither is it (warhammer) like Yahtzee, a pure game of chance, where the highest toss always wins. Warhammer is a combination of the two, so be sure to treat it that way.

/T

 

so my opponent stated last night he is bringing the new rules since his chariot is in there, any tips on taking down what in 40k is a tank?

 

The chariot is nothing like it is in 40K other than perhaps the model itself. Like most chariots, the biggest danger is on the charge when it has impact hits. Ideally, charge it first and then flank it with a ranked unit. However, due to its very high move, it is more likely to get the charge in but a ranked unit will be able to stay steadfast and then grind it down. It has saurus level S & T with a poor AS so shooting will weaken it and you may even get lucky although it has a lot of wounds. A scar vet on cold one with dawnstone could likely absorb the charge with only a single wound or perhaps none while a steggie similarly might only take a single wound (let's not talk about the squishy skinks!) and both could then grind it down afterwards.

 

the new slaanesh chariots are "glass feathers". they do not hit hard and they are not hard to destroy (and also they are expensive lol)

 

thank you all, battle ended with the lizards wipeing out the deamons last blow went to a thunder stomping steg and was dealt to a flying warbeast, the battle was decided in a combat that started with saurus charging turn 3 and expanded each turn thereafter with more and more getting involved

the army i used was
Slann Focus of mystery(life), focused rumination, forbidden rod BSB (usual solid performance)
skink priest cube of darkness eotg (rolled urannon's thunderbolt and hit the flamers missed useing its burning alignment twice didn't make a diffrence but it could have)
salamander (died to a chariot taking half its wounds)
salamander (turn 3 charged with the steg and temple guard and overran to fight with the saurus because of the posistioning and timeing of the fights did well lost 1 skink)
5 cold one cavalry sb and M w banner of swiftness (died to some monsters on juggernauts)
20 temple guard full command w war banner (killed one unit with sallie and steg's help turned and fought off the juggernauts and then charged into the main fight with the steg and was fighting on a corner, survived with about 5 total casulties regrowth helped)
30 saurus warriors full command (did the bulk of the fighting)
10 skinks skirmishers (lost one model to some charging swarm things)
10 skinks skirmishers (killed one juggernaut, finished the flamers)

Not entirly sure what the enemy was 1 chariot 3 juggernauts with riders, 3 flamers, 3 flying warbeasts, 20 pink horrors with herald, 20 nurgle core with herald, and 20 of something else that went splat when charged by temple guard, salamnder and steg last 2 in the flank.

 

Your opponent had a soft army.
I use to play against a deamon with :
1 Lord of change
2 heralds of khorne
1 herald of Tzench

2 hordes of 28 Bloodletters (with the heralds, it's a lot of hatred, killing blow attacks w/ WS5 S5 I4, which eat saurus for breakfast...)
2xXgargoyles
2x3 flamers

3 juggernauts

And this hurts a lot. It's really hard to deal with the bloodletters, flamers are tough to deal with our shooting units, juggernauts too (because of high armor).